Under Nicolás Maduro, the hostility hardened further. Washington responded to Venezuela’s internal political crisis with crippling economic sanctions, asset seizures, and diplomatic isolation. The attempt to install Juan Guaidó as a “parallel president” was perhaps the most extravagant intervention of the century—a strategy that collapsed spectacularly as the world refused to accept what became a geopolitical fiction. These episodes are not isolated. They form a continuous arc of confrontation stretching from the late 1990s to the present, an arc that shapes how any potential U.S. military action must be understood today.
In this context, Russia and China have become central actors. Russia’s involvement is direct and strategic. Moscow sees Venezuela as a key outpost in its global contest with U.S. dominance. Over the past decade, it has expanded military cooperation, supplied advanced air-defence systems, trained Venezuelan officers, and signalled repeatedly that it will not allow a rerun of Iraq or Libya on its geopolitical perimeter. In the event of an attack, Russia would not need to deploy troops to meaningfully alter the balance; its intelligence, cyber capabilities, defence technologies and diplomatic weight would dramatically raise the cost of any U.S. assault.
China, though less dramatic in tone, is just as indispensable. Beijing has poured billions into Venezuelan energy, infrastructure, and long-term credit lines. It has consistently rejected sanctions and opposed external interference, grounding its approach in sovereignty and economic stability. If the U.S. attacked, China would respond by ensuring Venezuela’s economic survival: expanding credit lines, buying oil regardless of sanctions, and blocking any Western attempt to legitimise military action at the United Nations. Beijing’s calculus is simple. Allowing a violent overthrow in Venezuela would set a precedent that could later be used against its other partners—and eventually against itself.
But perhaps the most striking change lies not in Eurasia, but in Latin America itself. The region has moved into a new era marked by sovereignty, cooperation, and an instinctive rejection of U.S. militarism. Even countries that disagree with Maduro on ideology or governance oppose any form of foreign military intervention. The era in which Washington could rely on neighbouring states to serve as logistical platforms or political cover is over.
Colombia is the clearest example. Once the centre of U.S. security operations, Colombia under President Gustavo Petro has undergone a profound transformation. Petro has rebuilt relations with Caracas, embraced diplomacy over militarised counterinsurgency, and rejected the U.S.’s punitive drug war model.